[ { "iteration": 1, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 01:54:12.190290", "trades_seen": 34, "win_rate": 20.6, "recent_wr": 10.0, "total_pnl": -111.91, "strategy": "emergency_tighten", "changes": [ [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", 18, "WR 20.6% \u2014 raising quality bar hard" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", 38, "Only trade very high confidence" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", 5, "Limit concurrent risk" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", 10, "Slow down entries \u2014 be selective" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", 0.02, "Only trade clear mispricings" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", true, "late phase WR=4.2% \u2014 blocking" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", 1.0, "Small bets while losing" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", 2.0, "Cap at $2 while losing" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", 0.25, "Minimum bets" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", 0.75, "Cap medium bets" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", 30, "Systematic experiment: Rotating LAG window (option 2/4)" ] ], "applied": 10, "notes": [ "WR=20.6% \u2014 losing badly. Drastic quality filter. Only near/late phase with EXP signal.", "Blocking late phase (4.2% WR)" ] }, { "iteration": 2, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:09:17.301420", "experiment_type": "RR_FIX", "hypothesis_label": "rr_tight_stop", "description": "R/R FIX: R/R: Tight trailing stop (8%) \u2014 cut per-trade losses fast", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "18" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.08" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ] ], "n_winners_known": 0 }, { "iteration": 3, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:20:57.915575", "experiment_type": "RR_FIX", "hypothesis_label": "rr_high_profit", "description": "R/R FIX: R/R: High profit target (75%) \u2014 let individual winners run further", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "18" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.75" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ] ], "n_winners_known": 0 }, { "iteration": 4, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:26:14.638436", "experiment_type": "RR_FIX", "hypothesis_label": "rr_combined_rr", "description": "R/R FIX: R/R: Combined \u2014 tight stop + high profit target", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "18" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.75" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.08" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ] ], "n_winners_known": 0 }, { "iteration": 5, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:27:12.254329", "experiment_type": "RR_FIX", "hypothesis_label": "rr_cheap_entry", "description": "R/R FIX: R/R: Only cheap contracts (\u22640.55) \u2014 more upside room per trade", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "18" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.05" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.55" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ] ], "n_winners_known": 0 }, { "iteration": 6, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:33:13.048930", "experiment_type": "RR_FIX", "hypothesis_label": "rr_selective", "description": "R/R FIX: R/R: Higher bar for entry \u2014 only trade cleaner signals", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "22" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ] ], "n_winners_known": 1 }, { "iteration": 7, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:34:22.676354", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "score_med_6", "description": "EXPERIMENT: Very low score bar \u2014 maximum trade volume", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "6" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 1 }, { "iteration": 8, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:35:19.350766", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "score_med_8", "description": "EXPERIMENT: Low score bar \u2014 high frequency", "trades_seen": 169, "win_rate": 67.5, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1853, "breakeven_wr": 70.2, "total_pnl": -31.83, "applied_params": [ [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "8" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 1 }, { "iteration": 9, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 10:57:24.227520", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "score_med_15", "description": "EXPERIMENT: Medium score bar", "trades_seen": 177, "win_rate": 67.8, "recent_wr": 80.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1871, "breakeven_wr": 70.5, "total_pnl": -33.17, "applied_params": [ [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ 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"MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "20" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 2 }, { "iteration": 11, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 11:27:36.307868", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "score_med_28", "description": "EXPERIMENT: High score bar \u2014 very selective", "trades_seen": 185, "win_rate": 68.1, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1694, "breakeven_wr": 70.5, "total_pnl": -31.23, "applied_params": [ [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "28" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 2 }, { "iteration": 12, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 11:37:29.756946", "experiment_type": "COMBINE", "hypothesis_label": "combine_block_late+score_med_8", "description": "COMBINE: Testing all 2 proven winners together: block_late, score_med_8", "trades_seen": 185, "win_rate": 68.1, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1694, "breakeven_wr": 70.5, "total_pnl": -31.23, "applied_params": [ [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "8" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 2 }, { "iteration": 13, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 11:38:36.364388", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "score_high_45", "description": "EXPERIMENT: Need all 3 signals (40+ needs EXP+LAG+MOM)", "trades_seen": 185, "win_rate": 68.1, "recent_wr": 70.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.1694, "breakeven_wr": 70.5, "total_pnl": -31.23, "applied_params": [ [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.25" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "2.0" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "40" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "45" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.0" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.75" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 2 }, { "iteration": 14, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 11:50:24.069743", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "bet_tiny", "description": "EXPERIMENT: Penny bets \u2014 pure data gathering mode", "trades_seen": 189, "win_rate": 68.8, "recent_wr": 80.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.113, "breakeven_wr": 70.4, "total_pnl": -21.57, "applied_params": [ [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.01" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "0.1" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "8" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "0.01" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.05" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 2 }, { "iteration": 15, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 12:07:47.914820", "experiment_type": "SINGLE_TEST", "hypothesis_label": "bet_small", "description": "EXPERIMENT: Small bets \u2014 low risk learning", "trades_seen": 196, "win_rate": 69.9, "recent_wr": 100.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.0487, "breakeven_wr": 70.6, "total_pnl": -9.57, "applied_params": [ [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "18" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "1.5" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ "BET_MED_MIN", "0.5" ], [ "LAG_WINDOW_SECS", "30" ], [ "STOP_LOSS", "0.4" ], [ "ENTRY_COOLDOWN", "10" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MAX", "4.0" ], [ "MIN_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.35" ], [ "BET_HIGH_MIN", "1.5" ], [ "BLOCK_EARLY", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_MID", "NO" ], [ "BLOCK_LATE", "YES" ] ], "n_winners_known": 3 }, { "iteration": 16, "timestamp": "2026-04-06 12:08:55.930109", "experiment_type": "COMBINE", "hypothesis_label": "combine_stop_loss_fix+block_late+bet_tiny", "description": "COMBINE: Testing all 3 proven winners together: stop_loss_fix, block_late, bet_tiny", "trades_seen": 196, "win_rate": 69.9, "recent_wr": 100.0, "ev_per_trade": -0.0487, "breakeven_wr": 70.6, "total_pnl": -9.57, "applied_params": [ [ "SCORE_MEDIUM", "18" ], [ "MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD", "0.0005" ], [ "MAX_ENTRY_PRICE", "0.88" ], [ "MOMENTUM_SECONDS", "60" ], [ "TRAILING_STOP_PCT", "0.2" ], [ "BET_MED_MAX", "0.05" ], [ "MIN_MISPRICING", "0.02" ], [ "SCORE_HIGH", "38" ], [ "LAG_MIN_BTC_MOVE", "0.0006" ], [ "MAX_POSITIONS", "5" ], [ "PROFIT_TARGET", "0.35" ], [ 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